The Future of Stuff

The above machine is called a RepRap, a form of rapid prototyper. It's basically a printer that uses plastic ink to extrude items layer by layer from a plan file.

The a lot of the stuff that is assembled and shipped around the world to consumer markets is plastic. Just think of phone housings, toys, car interior panels, buttons.... The list goes on. Imagine that these printers were very cheap and affordable, almost free. Then the need to ship large amounts of stuff from far away places could be replaced by local production on demand, with great degrees of customization to the final product, and highly reduced energy requirements . The need for large warehouses of stock items and inventory control would diminish as well.

One of the prime goals of RepRap machines is to enable them to produce a copy of themselves, or at least the parts to do this that can be assembled. This hasn't been achieved yet, but progress is being made. There is also room to scale the machines size an relative outputs up and down.

Other efforts are being made to enable printing of circuitry and embed other material types along with the plastic. This might allow inexpensive robotics or replacement parts. The ability to recycle feedstocks would also be enhanced.

The project is 'open source' as well, with a collaboration of international designers working together and making the fruits of their labor free to all. The potential to allow the worlds poor access to material goods at low cost is incredible.

So here we have a machine that can produce a massive range of products ( with possibly even more coming in the future ), able to reproduce a large portion of its own constituent components ( and aiming for all components), and no licensing fees or IP concerns. Can you spell market disruptions?

Although I think the technology is useful, worthwhile, and should be developed, it promises to be extremely destabilizing to the current economic system. Without forethought and a guided transition, I see the possibility of massive corporate failures and unemployment levels soaring.

Think of Mao Mart , one of the biggest employers in the world. Imagine if they didn't have to rack half the stuff they currently do and that they no longer needed external factories to produce the goods. Thats basically 75% of the current employment that Mao Mart supports gone up in smoke. Overnight. No transition period. Pink slips in the morning.

People will still be able to afford things, thanks to RepRap production, but what will they do? There is no RepRap for re-educating oneself into a new career. Idle hands tend to make idle minds as they say.

Of course some things will still bulk produced on older style industrial machinery, but it seems sensible that this too will be further automated, and spare parts provided by onsite RepRap type machines. Humans are getting thrown out of the loop faster and faster, and nobody is really that prepared for it.

A larger example of RepRap extension is Contour Crafting work by Dr. Khoshnevis at USC:

As can be seen in the rendering at left, this is basically a RepRap type machine that can output houses ( no self reproduction however.....yet).

Again this would be a massively disruptive technology if no precautions are taken to mitigate the economic disruptions. Imagine the number of unemployed housebuilders, forestry workers, etc...

I don't propose a Luddite attitude and burying these advances, but I do think due caution is in order. As the recent economic downturns have show, the economy is deeply intertwined and interdependent. One card falling can knock over whole houses.

Exactly what to do is up for debate, and I don't have a completely adequate solution as of yet. But like many of todays technologies, these advances are barreling down on us from the future at the speed sharks with laser beams . And until humans are able to be augmented to keep the pace, special considerations must be made in order to allow them to stay in the picture. Futureshock is upon us.